We attended Bank of Sacramento’s annual forecast for Sacramento Metro area. The speakers were Dr. Robert Fountain, retired professor of real estate and urban planning. he is presently a regional economics consultant. The other speaker Maurine Padden Vice Presient of  the California Bankers Association.

Here is what to expect based on their remarks.

1.  The end of the recession does not necessarily mean recovery

2.  New Normal:  Recovery will not be a return to pre-recession levels. Historical data is not necessarily useful in predicting recovery outcomes. The rear view mirror does not tell where you are going.

3.  Recovery usually comes quickly when it begins. Recovery can be as challenging and chaotic as the recession. Those who are still hunkered down can get left behind.

4.  Recessions are not just changes in levels; they are large scale restructuring. Restructuring and recovery are two versions of the same processes. Many firms, industries, regions will never return to prior levels; others will burst forth and set new trends.

Since this meeting a judge ordered the Calfornia Governor to return all furlough employees salaries.  The Governor appealed. It probably will be in the courts a long time. Here is what I can’t understand. Why is the union suing for recovery of furlough salaries? If they prevaile with the State broke, the money will have to come from somewhere. IT WILL MEAN LAYOFFS. Tell me union people what is worse a temporary furlough or a permanent layoff. This is not rocket science, this is simple logic.

What effect will this have on local economy? If the court challenges go on for years hopefully the economy will have recovered and it won’t make that much difference.

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1.  Lambert Munz MPM RMP

Buyer consultant and property manager

Visit www.arbourpm.com regarding our services and www.expert-landlord-resources.com for our resource store featuring my book House Investor’s Manual

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